Skip to main content

Five Models Traditionally Used For Electrical Load Predictions : Issue 1 of WENexus Letters

Load forecasting is a technique used by power companies to predict the power or energy needed to balance the supply and load demand at all times. A load model is a mathematical representation of the relation between the demand and supply of power to a system, specifically, power generating units like thermal or hydropower plant. Based on the forecasted load, the mechanism to generate power is adjusted. This way power plant conserves the fuel used in power generation and also minimize the cost of running the plant(i.e., operational cost). This edition of WENexus Letters is dedicated to 'load prediction models' which are extremely important for sustaining the profitability of any type of power plant.

Content

1)Five Models Traditionally Used For Electrical Load Predictions

2)Which model to select if you can use only one?

3)Further Reading: Three best sources for learning about load forecasting methods

4)Recent Techniques in Load Prediction Models: Artificial Neural Networks

5)Call for Paper 

6)Research Ideas: Five new topics for your internship

7)What's New in Water-Energy Nexus



1)Five Models Traditionally Used For Electrical Load Predictions

Prediction of electrical loads helps an electric utility to make decisions on purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. Load forecasting is important not only for power sectors but also for ISOs, financial institutions, and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution markets. The stock market is also influenced by the electrical load. This article will describe the five most traditionally used electrical load forecasting models.....More info.





2)Which model to select if you can use only one?

There are numerous models available for load prediction. But, not all the models are equally efficient and model accuracy varies with many different factors. That is why the smart selection of a model for approximation of electrical load or consumption or generation is essential for useful decision making which again will be the main platform for policymaking. Identification of the most significant factor and selection of models based on those factors ensure accurate but quick prediction. 

First, go through the important factors that will be useful for the selection of an optimal forecasting model and second visit the optimal decision-maker web apps and to find a better option among all the available models...More info.

3)Further Reading:  Three best sources for learning about load forecasting methods

A)Electrical Load Forecasting by S.A. Soliman

"Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized."...More Info.

Why recommended: Most used algorithms for load forecasting in one book.

Table of Contents:

1. State of the Art

2. Static State Estimation

3. Short Term Load Forecasting Models

4. Fuzzy Systems and Fuzzy linear Regression

5. Dynamic State Estimation

6. Load Forecasting Computational Results: Static State Estimation

7. Load Forecasting Computational Results Fuzzy Linear Regression

8. Dynamic Electric Load Forecasting

B) Electricity Load Forecasting Using Data Mining Technique

By Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul Razak, Shah bin Majid, Mohd Shahrieel bin Mohd. Aras and Arfah binti Ahmad

"Accurate load forecasting is become crucial in power system operation and planning [1-3]; both for deregulated and regulated electricity market. Electric load forecasting can be divided into three categories that are short term load forecasting, medium term load forecasting and long term load forecasting. The short term load forecasting predicts the load demand from one day to several weeks. It helps to estimate load flows that can prevent overloading and hence lead to more economic and secure power system . The medium term load forecasting predicts the load demand from a month to several years that provides information for power system planning and operations."...More Info.

Why recommended: Describes SARIMA data mining in load forecasting

Table of Content :

1.Introduction

2.Problem statement

3.Data mining with SARIMA time series

4.SARIMA modelling

5.Result and analysis

6.Conclusion

7.Further research

C) Load Forecasting by Abdelhay A. Sallam and Om P. Malik

"Spatial load forecasting is based on three aspects as main requirements: how well the forecast supports the planning process, where will the future load develop, and when will the expected load growth occur. The three aspects are explained to indicate their effect on estimating the load forecast and consequently on the planning process"...More Info.

Why recommended: Discuss spatial load prediction techniques.

4)Recent Techniques in Load Prediction Models: Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Network is widely used in short term prediction models for the estimation of the load. But as discussed in various literature, the accuracy of such models depends on reasonable factors like the number of data set that were used to train the model and also various other parameters. A brief introduction to Artificial Neural Network may clear your views. Click here to see the presentation.

5)Call for Paper 

Special Issue: Electrical Power & Energy Systems, Elsevier

.."this special issue aims to investigate applications of advanced machine learning techniques in power system operation, analysis, planning, cybersecurity, as well as power electronics control, modulation techniques, reliability of the power electronics switches, and efficiency improvement in power electronics applications."...More info.

Special Issue: Energies, MDPI

..." This Special Issue aims at encouraging researchers and industries to report their solutions for the design of the system structure as well as of operational and control models for DR management in electricity markets and ancillary services."..More info.

Special Issue: Water and Energy Informatics,EIS

"I will like to invite my readers to submit their original research manuscripts for possible publication in the special issue entitled "Optimization of Water-Energy Nexus by Soft Computation and Hierarchical Decision Making Methods" in the Journal of Water and Energy Nexus.

This journal is a new journal which is published from Energy in Style Publishers.Although this is a new journal but it is not a paid or predatory journal and perform extensive peer reviews before allowing an article to be published in the journal"....More info.

6)Research Ideas: Five new topics for your internship

During the vacations, one can utilize their leisure time doing a research project. Incumbent can contact an expert and decide on which topic she/he can pursue the project. The end result can be manifold which includes but not limited to: a publication in a journal/conference; a patent; an innovative idea for doing business or a monograph which highlights the journey from the idea in the paper to the lab and ultimately in use for the benefit of mankind. 

Following ideas are developed, keeping in mind that such leisure time is small and limited. The proposed designs can be accomplished within a short time and if one can devote around 4 to 5 hours. The reward will depend on the sincerity and seriousness of the researcher.

The selected five ideas are entirely new and have never been tried before. An acknowledgement in the articles that one can publish after successful completion of the projects will be enough for the author of this blog...More Info.

8)What's New in Water-Energy Nexus(WEN)

In one side the USA and its President have agreed to increase funding on energy innovation by passing the Energy Act 2020 and on the other, the MENA countries continued to face insecurity in the interrelationship between Water, Energy and Food due to the impact of climate change and large scale and rapid urbanization only to be aggravated by the Pandemic Scenario. The following three articles summarize the mood in the word of WEN.

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to focus on "innovation, technology commercialization, emissions reductions, renewables and domestic manufacturing" and "will support research and deployment for energy storage, reducing emissions from the industrial and manufacturing sectors, technology demonstration and commercial-scale carbon-capture"...further reading.

"If allowed to continue, insecurity in the water-food-energy nexus will lead to political unrest, displacement and instability."...Huni,2020...Read more.

"Water, energy, and food resources appear to be intact currently, but nexus stability is threatened by the link between COVID-19 mitigation responses and potential negative economic impacts. Some are advocating a shift from societal protection if the economy begins to show major disruption leading to recession."...Crisman and Winters,2020....Read More.

Chao...Mrinmoy, Founding Editor of WENexus Letters.

Subscribe to this blog to Receive All the Issues At Your Email. This newsletter is written to share knowledge, not to advice or adjudge. Sources, if not acknowledged, may kindly be alerted to the Editor by using the contact link. 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Invitation to Act as a Reviewer for a special issue of Journal of Water and Energy Nexus

I will like to invite my readers to act as a reviewer of the articles submitted for possible publication in the special issue entitled "Optimization of Water Energy Nexus by Soft Computation and Hierarchical Decision Making Methods" in the Journal of Water and Energy Nexus. This journal is a new journal which is published from Energy in Style Publishers.Although this is a new journal but it is not a paid or predatory journal and perform extensive peer reviews before allowing an article to be published in the journal. The Abstract and other details of the Special Issue is as given below : Abstract In any operational systems both water and energy is utilized for the sustenance of the benefits received from the system. The nexus of water and energy and their interdependency and cognitive utilization of the mutuality between the two basic essentials of mankind ensure the success of the system, which become evident from the output received from the setup. Acc

Ten Novel and Innovative Examples of Water Energy Nexus

 Managing water in energy production and optimizing the use of energy for clean water production is known as Water-Energy Nexus and in recent years one of the most popular topics of research. This nexus is deemed as the solution to the future scarcity problems due to change in climatic pattern and rapid urbanization and their lust for advanced technology. The uncontrolled extraction of natural resources, conversion of land use and deforestation along with the burgeoning population has created a human induces warming in the atmosphere which has resulted in climate change. Again for the same reason, the two most used natural resources in the Earth is now under stress and most of the population doesn't have a steady supply of these two essential resources. The result is so-called both natural and man-made disaster which has created a question on the sustainability of the future mankind. The nexus is deemed as one of the solutions to minimize the stress by using both water technology i